The prediction of the development prospect of cosmetics packaging materials is based on various information and data obtained from the market survey of cosmetics packaging materials, using scientific prediction techniques and methods to investigate and study various factors affecting the supply and demand changes of cosmetics packaging materials market, analyze and predict the development trend of cosmetics packaging materials, grasp the laws of the supply and demand changes of cosmetics packaging materials market, and provide reliable basis for business decisions.
In order to improve the scientific level of management and reduce the blindness of decision-making, it is necessary to grasp the relevant dynamics of economic development or future changes in the cosmetics packaging material market through the prediction of the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials, reduce the uncertainty of the future, reduce the risks that may be encountered in decision-making, and achieve the smooth realization of decision-making objectives.
The development prospect prediction of cosmetics packaging materials generally includes the following steps:
1. Determine objectives
Clarifying the purpose is the first step to predict the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials. Because the purpose of prediction is different, the content and items of prediction, the data required and the methods used will vary. To define the prediction goal is to formulate the prediction project, formulate the prediction work plan, prepare the budget, allocate the resources, and organize the implementation according to the problems existing in the business activities of the cosmetics packaging materials enterprise, so as to ensure that the prediction of the development prospects of the cosmetics packaging materials is carried out in a planned and rhythmic manner.
2. Collect data
Sufficient data must be available to predict the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials. Only with sufficient data can we provide a reliable basis for analysis and judgment of the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials. Under the guidance of the development prospect prediction plan of cosmetics packaging materials, the investigation and collection of prediction data is an important part of the development prospect prediction of cosmetics packaging materials, and also the basic work of prediction.
3. Select method
According to the prediction objectives and the applicable conditions of various prediction methods, the appropriate prediction methods are selected. Sometimes multiple prediction methods can be used to predict the same target. The accuracy and reliability of prediction will be directly affected by the selection of prediction methods. The core of the method for predicting the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials is to establish a model that describes and summarizes the characteristics and change rules of the research object, and then calculate or process the model to obtain the prediction results.
4. Analysis and correction
Analysis and judgment refers to the comprehensive analysis of the data collected from the investigation, and the promotion of perceptual knowledge to rational knowledge through judgment and reasoning, from the phenomenon of things to the essence of things, so as to predict the future development trend of the cosmetics packaging material market. On the basis of analysis and evaluation, the original prediction results are usually evaluated and revised according to the latest information.
5. Prepare report
The prediction report of cosmetic packaging materials should summarize the main activity process of the prediction study, including the prediction objectives, prediction objects and analysis conclusions of relevant factors, main data and data, the selection of prediction methods and the establishment of models, as well as the evaluation, analysis and correction of the prediction conclusions.
Relevant research results:
The in-depth investigation and development trend analysis report on the current situation of the global and Chinese cosmetics packaging materials industry from 2022 to 2028
Current situation analysis and development prospect forecast report of China's plastic flexible packaging material printing market in 2023-2029
Market Research and Prospect Forecast Report of China's Packaging Materials Industry from 2022 to 2028
To predict the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials, it is necessary to grasp four basic elements of prediction:
1. Information. Information is the representation and reflection of the characteristics and changes of objective things, exists in all kinds of carriers, and is the main work object, work basis and achievement reflection of the prediction of cosmetics packaging materials.
2. Method. Methods refer to various means used for qualitative and quantitative analysis in the process of prediction. The prediction methods can be divided into different categories according to different standards. According to the prediction result attribute of cosmetics packaging materials, it can be divided into qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction. According to the different prediction time, it can be divided into long-term prediction, medium-term prediction and short-term prediction. According to the method itself, it can be divided into many categories, the most basic of which is model prediction and non-model prediction.
3. Analysis. Analysis is a thinking research activity based on relevant theories. After the prediction conclusion is drawn according to the prediction method, two aspects of analysis must be carried out: first, theoretically analyze whether the prediction results meet the conditions of economic theory and statistical analysis; The second is to analyze the accuracy of the prediction error in practice and evaluate the reliability of the prediction results.
4. Judgment. The prediction should follow certain procedures and steps to make the work orderly, planned and coordinated.
There are many methods to predict the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials, mainly including the following:
1. Time series
In the prediction of the development prospects of cosmetics packaging materials, we often encounter a series of economic indicators that change with time, such as the annual (quarterly) sales and supply of cosmetics packaging materials enterprises' products, etc. These data arranged in chronological order are called time series. The method of forecasting by time series is called time series forecasting.
2. Return
(1) The meaning of "return". Regression is used to analyze and study the dependency relationship between a variable (dependent variable) and one or several other variables (independent variables). Its purpose is to estimate or predict the overall mean value of dependent variables according to a set of known independent variable data values. In economic prediction, people take the prediction object (economic index) as the dependent variable, and those influencing factors closely related to the prediction object as the independent variable. According to the historical and statistical data of the two, a regression model is established and used for prediction after statistical testing. Regression prediction includes univariate regression prediction of one independent variable and multiple regression prediction of multiple independent variables. Only univariate linear regression prediction method is discussed here.
(2) Basic conditions for regression analysis. When applying a set of known independent variable data to estimate and predict the value of a dependent variable, these two variables need to meet the following two conditions:
First, statistical correlation. Statistical correlation is an uncertain functional relationship, that is, the value of a dependent variable (prediction variable) is significantly related to the value of one or more independent variables, but cannot be accurately and uniquely determined, and the variables are random variables. This correlation exists in a large number in economic phenomena.
Second, causality. If one or several independent variables x change, it will affect another variable y according to a certain rule, but the change of y cannot affect x, that is, the change of x is the cause of the change of y, not the opposite, then it is said that there is a causal relationship between x and y. The model that reflects the causal relationship is called a regression model.
3. Qualitative and quantitative
The other classification method of development prospect prediction can be divided into qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction. For enterprise marketing managers, they should understand and master the following enterprise prediction methods:
(1) Qualitative prediction method
The qualitative prediction method, also known as the intuitive judgment method, is often used in the development prospect prediction of cosmetics packaging materials. Qualitative prediction mainly depends on the information, experience and comprehensive judgment of the forecasters to predict the future situation and development trend of the market. This kind of prediction method is simple and feasible, especially for those problems that are difficult to obtain comprehensive data for statistical analysis. Therefore, the qualitative prediction method has been widely used in the development prospect prediction of cosmetics packaging materials. Qualitative prediction methods also include: expert meeting method, Delphi method, salesperson opinion collection method, and customer demand intention survey method.
(2) Quantitative prediction method
Quantitative prediction is to predict the future market demand of cosmetics packaging materials by using relatively complete historical data, mathematical models and measurement methods. Quantitative prediction is basically divided into two categories, one is time series model, the other is causal relationship model.
With the increasing competition in the cosmetics packaging material industry, mergers and acquisitions, integration and capital operation among large enterprises are becoming increasingly frequent. The outstanding cosmetics packaging material enterprises at home and abroad are paying more and more attention to the analysis and research of the cosmetics packaging material market, especially the in-depth study of the current cosmetics packaging material market environment and customer demand trends, with a view to occupying the market ahead of time and gaining the first-mover advantage. Because of this, a large number of excellent cosmetics packaging material brands have risen rapidly and gradually become the leaders in the industry. Industry Research Network uses a variety of information processing technologies to collect, sort out, process and analyze massive data of the cosmetics packaging material industry market, provide customers with a package of information solutions and consulting services, minimize the investment risks and operating costs of cosmetics packaging materials customers, grasp investment opportunities, and improve enterprise competitiveness. |